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We got to win this time !
11th July 1999 Anand @thepentagon.com
Are we winning ? Newspaper headlines are full describing how we are winning the battle at Kargil , how Pakistan is getting diplomatically isolated , how the Pakistan economy is going to pieces trying to sustain the war . So far so good . But consider this ; Nawaz Sharief is already in Washington to find some face saving compromise which means if he succeeds India will have to concede something . We do not know what . Even if we consider that Nawaz Sharief comes back empty handed what are the possible outcomes given the current situation . 1. We push the intruders right upto the LOC within a week . No other complications follow . 2. UNO / US pressurizes Pakistan to withdraw and India to promise a timebound solution to Kashmir problem or to promise serious talks to change LOC into international border by creating a no man's zone on either side . Let us consider the first scenario . We push the intruders right to the LOC. As we get nearer to the LOC , the battle gets more and more fierce as the intruders get nearer to their support bases . Thus the casualties will mount. We would have lost a number of trained officers and jawans , not to talk about millions of rupees in war expenses and would have gained nothing in real terms . In addition we would have bought the headache of very closely patrolling the difficult terrain come wind or come rain just to avoid another Kargil like scenario. Nawaz Sharief and the Pakistani generals will be laughing their way to the stones they crawled out from . They have used a low cost alternative to bleed India heavily , have successfully internationalized the Kashmir question in the way they wanted to and in the bargain have lost nothing other than international credibility for which Pakistan never cared anyway . No we cannot let them get away with that . If this happens , it will be history repeating itself the umpteenth time . If it happens the second way 2. UNO / US pressurizes Pakistan to withdraw and India to promise a timebound solution to Kashmir problem or to promise serious talks to change LOC into international border by creating a no man's zone on either side . Again Pakistan has everything to gain . Kashmir issue is internationalizes , .Converting LOC into international border will mean accepting and ratifying the 1948 aggression by Pakistan . The headache of guarding difficult terrain still remains . If a no man's zone is created , India will permanently lose the Leh Kargil route which then will be dangerously close to the international border . Pakistan backed guerrillas can still work in the no man's land . So what is India's gain after having lost many valuable lives , millions or rupees and having bought a new headache ? We cannot afford to be that naive . The possible options that India needs to think about if it has to gain anything in real terms from this conflict are 1. A full scale war 1. A full scale war will cut the supply lines of the intruders and will isolate them completely thus bringing them to their knees . 2. The war will be pushed onto the Pakistan territory and their casualties will be way more than us . The reason being we will no more be fighting in the difficult terrain but in plains and the Indian army is way more motivated and equipped than the Pakistan army . 3. The war will be over within two or three weeks . Pakistan will surrender . Leave aside military victory , economically Pakistan cannot sustain a war . Due to the international focus use of nuclear weapon is out of question for Pakistan . Within two weeks Indian forces will be able to threaten Lahore . 4. India can then enter into negotiations , having something to give and take . In return for territory India can either demand that Pakistan hands over the terrorists and other criminals who are being supported by and hiding in Pakistan to be tried for war crimes or on the other hand get back a part of Kashmir , beyond Kargil , into the plains . Thus the border patrolling does not remain so costly an affair . This will also be an adequate lesson for Pakistan . 2. Surgical attacks deep inside Pakistan aimed at the support bases for guerrillas and Pakistani arms establishments Pakistan's involvement has been proven beyond doubt . It has also been accepted by the nations across the world . The iron is hot . India will never get this chance again . India should aim to destroy the intruder support bases deep inside Pakistan territory and also aim at Pakistan military and industrial establishments for crippling the Pakistani military and economy both . This will teach a good lesson to Pakistan not to interfere with India again. Pakistan is under tremendous pressure and at the moment will not be in a position to retaliate to surgical attacks . Even if it retaliates , it will be in our favor as then we can go onto a full scale war where India holds all the aces . In international negotiations India always tends to be a gentleman believing that the meek shall inherit the earth . This policy is of no use in dealing with Neanderthal beasts from Pakistan . The soft approach just has not worked till date . India has to start demanding cakes now to get at least some cookies later . If we keep our goal limited to guarding our borders we are only being reactive and we are sure to lose as usual . Anand
