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Pak Game plan
3rd June 1999 Aseem Asthana @bom4.vsnl.net.in
Hello, I wish to share with you about what I think would be the Pakistan's gameplan for the insurgency in India and the recent incursion into Kargil. The two main components that are necessary for a country to fight a battle and successfully defend itself are its armed forces and equally importantly is its resolve to fight and continue fighting even in face of serious setbacks. The former is the military component and the latter is the political component. By this ingenious gameplan that Pakistan has adopted, it has ensured that both these components are being harmed vis-a-vis India. To understand how, we must realize that even though India has a larger standing Army than Pakistan the forces that are free ( that is not being deployed in any sensitive area) are few. These are almost equal in number to Pakistan's strength. After the Kargil misadventure we will be forced to deploy a division in Kargil to ensure that this does not happen again. This is exactly what Pakistan had in mind. Now the number of free troops will be reduced even further. Even in the eventuality of war, we will not be able to spare these troops. Neither these nor the ones standing guard at the border with China, or those fighting militancy in J & K / North East. So with little expenditure (compared to a conventional war, proxy war is easier to finance) Pakistan has ensured that the troops that will ultimately engage in war are at a numerical parity. This is unlike the case in the previous wars where we had a clear numerical strength. Also, the troops that will fight are battle weary, having served at least once in some militant-infested area. We have also lost a substantial number of military personnel in these skirmishes. Loses of military hardware also have to be taken into account. The other factor is the resolve or the political will. All military moves, capture of territory etc are designed to bring about a collapse of the opponents' will to fight. This will happen if the enemy either loses too much territory or is suffering great loses. Nuclear bombs clearly do not win any territory but weaken the opponent by making him suffer huge loses. This was what brought about Japan's fall in WW II. In case of '71 Pakistan did not loose territory greatly but its will to fight was eroded by loosing 90 thousand soldiers as POWs to India ( in addition to other factors, of course). Insurgency is another method of weakening your opponent. Pakistan learnt the method from its involvement in the Afghanistan war. Pakistan is indulging in terrorism across the length and breadth of India to weaken India's spirit. Terrorism has plagued India from Punjab to J & K to North Eastern states and now in Tamil Nadu. It would be difficult for me to say how far it has succeeded in this attempt but certainly some damage has been done. Insurgency has been bleeding this country white for the past fifteen years. This will have some effect in the next war that we will ( if we do ) have with Pakistan. Here again, it has brought us down to its level, which is unlike the previous wars that we fought. So Pakistan has been very successful in its attempts. And it has done all this without it self taking any loses or any great cost. In fact, it has even prevented US from labeling it a terrorist state. Keeping these in mind, the outcome of the next war might not be as predictable as public opinion would like it to be. It is high time that we sit back and look hard at what options we have to counter these strategic moves that have led to the downgrading of our war-winning capability. Should we engage Pak in a conventional war and seek to bring about a stop to such activities and maybe render Pak incapable of such activities against india for the future. Or should we ourselves make a move of the lines of Pak strategy? The effect it will have on Pakistan will be more drastic than in our case in view of the shallow 'depth', small length and weaker economy. Another option is to isolate Pakistan in International fora. It had been given American help for the US wanted to counter the soviet threat during the cold war period in this region. With the end of the cold war US might be more amenable to abandoning Pakistan. We might also be able to utilize the present anti-China bias in the US and the suspicions of a Pak-China nuclear link up. Conducting the elections in J & K was a step in right direction, but we have long since lost the advantage. But that would require some serious diplomatic efforts. All these options have to be considered and a suitable strategy evolved keeping in mind our strengths & weaknesses. Or else we might disintegrate as a nation like the erstwhile USSR. A strong public opinion is needed to shake the leaders into action. It never pays to underestimate your enemy. Aseem. Aseem Asthana, 239 A, New Swarg Mandir, Mhow 453441, MP, India. Tele - 91 7324 74603/78236. Fax - (001)(847) 589-3332, ICQ #36888504 Final Yr, B. E., Department of Comp Sc & Engg, Sri Govindram Sekseria Institute of Technology and Science, 23, Park Rd, Indore. MP. India. Alternate Email - [email protected]
